5. Trends in world power generation

The choice of technologies in energy sector of the future is rather little. According to the Russian expert community view, stipulated in the Concept of Energy Sector Strat-egy of the Russian Federation till 2030 [1], energy sources which will change developed economic, balance and environmental representations are determined as follows:

• Fast neutrons nuclear power with full fuel cycle,
• Non-conventional renewable sources of energy,
• Non-traditional non-renewable resources (gas-hydrates, etc.)
• Probably, thermonuclear power.

Here it is necessary to pay attention that among the listed technologies thermal re-actors are not mentioned – a basis of modern global nuclear power, which is proposed to be developed in Belarus. The main reason – fuel restrictions in connection with close de-pletion of cheap stocks of uranium.

Speaking about technology of thermonuclear synthesis, it is necessary to refer to opinion of E. P. Velikhov – one of the leaders of the Russian program of thermonuclear synthesis, – who has determined, that in case of success, commercial capacity of reactors, based on thermonuclear synthesis by the end of 21 centuries will not exceed 100,000 MW or some percents of the modern established capacity of all electric energy industry of the world that is insignificantly little.
Extraction of gas-hydrates is at a stage of scientific study. In case such extraction would be launched the product will be liquefied natural gas which Belarus in any case should be purchasing from abroad.

The Russian expert community thinks that only atomic engineering on the basis of plutonium and renewable power generation will remain among real sources for the near-est century perspective.

At the same time, the technology of plutonium power engineering with closed cy-cle till now is not developed. But it is already known, that this technology is extremely dangerous from the point of view of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, more incident-prone and extremely expensive.

Among all technologies the most perspective and reliable are technologies on the basis of renewable sources of energy. At present, three technologies are leaders in the field of alternative power: generation of energy based on biomass, solar and wind energy engineering. The greatest volumes of investments and growth of capacities during the last years occur in wind power. Owing to fast perfection and reduction in price of solar photo cells it is expected, that after 2020 the solar power would become the leader of growth.

Taking into account limitation of stocks of cheap uranium and the significant risks accompanying atomic engineering, it is possible to draw a conclusion that at present only the renewable power engineering can provide energy safety and stable development both on global and national levels.